Growth halves, and the slowdown is broad
The slowdown was felt almost everywhere. Seven of the ten markets slowed and three slipped into decline: Thailand (−7.1%), Malaysia (−0.7%) and Saudi Arabia (−0.6%). A year earlier, every market was growing. Only India, the UAE and Indonesia grew faster than last year.
By sub-region, North Asia slowed to 0.4% from 2.2% and Southeast Asia to 1.3% from 4.3%, although Southeast Asia excluding Thailand still grew 3.2%. South & West Asia was the exception, accelerating to 8.3% from 5.7%.
India and Indonesia now carry the region
India accounts for under a tenth of Asia’s spend but delivered close to two thirds of its value growth, and Indonesia added about a quarter; together, two markets with under a fifth of the region’s spend supplied around nine tenths of its growth.
Mainland China, three fifths of spend, contributed a tenth after growing just 0.3%.
Excluding India, Asia grew by 0.6%.
India’s 13.0% is also more than a price story. Spend per trip rose 11.5%, well ahead of urban consumer price inflation of 3.2% to 3.9% between April and June, which suggests that larger packs and trading up are doing much of the work alongside higher prices.
Food holds the line while beverages and dairy give way
Food, around 42% of spend, grew 2.9% and delivered more than three quarters of the region’s growth. Beverages saw the sharpest swing of any sector, from +4.4% to −0.1%, pulled down by Mainland China (−1.4%) and Thailand (−8.2%), although Indonesia (+6.3%) and Malaysia (+5.7%) kept the category growing in Southeast Asia.
Dairy fell for a second year, by 2.3%, and declined in six of the ten markets; Mainland China’s dairy decline alone is larger than the region’s net dairy loss, with Taiwan, India and the UAE the notable risers. Personal care held up best of the growing sectors, at 2.0% against 2.3% a year ago, but the average conceals the widest spread of any sector, from +16.3% in India to −5.8% in Malaysia.
Fewer trips, harder working baskets
In most markets, shoppers are consolidating their trips. In South Korea purchase frequency fell 2.8%, and a 1.5% rise in spend per purchase could not make up the difference, tipping the market into decline in the first half of 2026. Urban Indian
households made 1.8% fewer shopping trips; Saudi shoppers are shopping less often and planning more, with volume growth driven by a rising number of buying households rather than bigger purchases per home; Malaysians are stretching the same budget across more volume per trip; and Filipino shoppers are putting fewer categories into each basket.
Fewer trips mean fewer chances to be chosen, which puts a premium on mental and physical availability. Taiwan and the UAE are the exceptions, and for opposite reasons: in Taiwan a wealth effect has shoppers visiting more often, while in the UAE shoppers are splitting their spending into smaller, more frequent trips to manage the outlay at each visit.
Value and proximity formats take share
Shoppers are moving towards formats that fit a tighter budget. Discounters’ share of Saudi FMCG value has risen from 7.4% to 12.9% in two years, with shopping occasions up 32% in the latest year, and in the UAE discounters have climbed from 5.4% to 8.3%. Malaysia’s mini markets grew 12.2%, Philippine discounters have more than doubled their share while sari-sari stores hold steady at around 40%, and in Mainland China retailers’ own brands grew by more than 60% in the first half.
Pack architecture is emerging as the common response, with shoppers in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the Philippines trading into sizes and price points that protect the basket.
Online becomes a habit rather than an occasion
E-commerce shopping occasions rose by double digits in Mainland China (+13%),
Taiwan (+13%), urban India (+11%) and Thailand (+10%), while spend per online trip was flat or falling, suggesting shoppers are topping up online more often rather than filling bigger baskets. Online now accounts for 31% of China’s FMCG value, up from 28% two years ago, and India’s online share reached 4.0% as the number of buying households rose by nearly a third.
South Korea, where online already takes 43% of value but grew just 0.9% in the first half, offers an early view of what maturity looks like.
Policy support and momentum: read the MAT with care
Government support is visibly propping up baskets in parts of Southeast Asia.
Malaysia’s beverage growth is being helped by eligibility under the SARA aid programme and by festive spending, and Thailand’s recovery from June coincides with the 60-40 Co-Pay campaign, which runs until September; the next edition will show how much of that recovery outlasts the scheme.
The moving annual total also blurs the direction of travel. Mainland China’s +0.3% understates a second quarter that grew 0.8%, South Korea’s +1.1% flatters a market that contracted in the first half, and Thailand’s −7.1% still carries weakness from earlier in the year, even as its categories returned to growth in the second quarter.
What it means for brands and retailers
Growth in Asia is harder to find and more concentrated than it was a year ago. With shoppers making fewer, more deliberate trips, the gains are going to those present in the formats and pack sizes that suit a tighter budget, whether a Saudi discounter, a Malaysian mini market or a Chinese shopping app. For brands, availability in the channels shoppers are moving towards, and pack architecture that keeps the outlay per trip manageable, are the most practical levers for the quarters ahead.
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